Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 13.665210 15.608467 17.713150 20.159917 22.924055 25.947846 29.504289
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.883115 13.508776 16.577733 20.421300 25.097615 30.593558 37.533698
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.260522 12.126616 15.644218 20.263533 26.153329 33.394135 42.952132
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.918014 10.874270 14.663086 19.851181 26.744102 35.557999 47.649964
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.051476 10.091140 14.134998 19.874853 27.773792 38.217686 53.021987
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.448130 9.577977 13.884485 20.197888 29.164208 41.378685 59.203696
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.890483 9.057104 13.552101 20.341051 30.265807 44.160471 64.982750
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.325645 8.461113 13.044983 20.165336 30.861474 46.224300 69.824608
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.934508 8.082001 12.810989 20.350123 31.962953 49.039649 75.876168
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.705346 7.927482 12.892766 21.000897 33.782010 52.987410 83.804822
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.305566 7.461459 12.448938 20.789953 34.242680 54.893978 88.719822
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.772341 6.726973 11.517095 19.723218 33.266813 54.508348 90.024647
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.590689 6.575024 11.528928 20.206310 34.834650 58.233850 98.102918
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.413503 6.414991 11.513764 20.640604 36.347457 61.956837 106.396662
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.142504 6.062253 11.138722 20.425453 36.741036 63.855748 111.772840
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.869507 5.680608 10.681441 20.027757 36.784409 65.157840 116.200390
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.686043 5.448609 10.470198 20.045841 37.542851 67.692296 122.838513
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.562405 5.319277 10.433772 20.373414 38.863446 71.251819 131.424262
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.423719 5.147973 10.305046 20.517128 39.852075 74.272492 139.207279
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.256010 4.903708 10.018756 20.340175 40.230734 76.217561 145.153952
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.145710 4.766495 9.927206 20.526411 41.293274 79.437702 153.557681
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.096000 4.751050 10.072662 21.182534 43.285367 84.453400 165.506926
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.955752 4.530867 9.791760 20.969857 43.576676 86.317206 171.659062